AURORA ALERT

 Hey, Space Placers!

Tonight's Aurora Forecast

NOAA SWPC 

Yay, here we go, again.

For skywatchers and wanna’ be Aurora (Northern Lights) chasers space weather conditions are currently predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to be favorable tonight https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental   for Aurora. The current PREDICTED line of visibility on the Northern horizon is the lower part of Pennsylvania. That is close enough to make it worth taking a look. I expect this forecast will change as the day goes on as space weather conditions are still developing. SWPC will issue updates as they are warranted and I will update this story accordingly. 

From SWPC:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT 29-31 JULY (UP TO G3; STRONG)

published: Monday, July 29, 2024 13:55 UTC NOTE: SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM UTC TO GET EDT

Geomagnetic storm watches are out for 29-31 July due to a number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections . Solar activity was elevated through the weekend and various events, including solar flares https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts  and filament eruptions were associated with CMEs. Some of these CMEs were determined to have Earth-directed components and arrival could begin as early as July 29th due to an event early on 27 July. Additional CMEs recently departed the Sun and are expected to arrive July 30th and continue into July 31st. Any CME arrival on 29 July could result in G1 (Minor) storm levels, however, the brunt of the activity is most likely on 30 July when additional CMEs from 27-28 July arrive and this could lead to G2-G3 levels as indicated by the WSA-Enlil model. CME influences will likely continue into 31 July as it takes time for CMEs to progress over and past Earth. Still, additional CMEs continue to erupt from the Sun due to the number of active regions and the associated complex sunspot groups, and additional CME arrivals are possible. Flare probabilities have increased and M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) events are now expected through most of the week, with a slight chance to chance of X-class activity (R3; Strong). Continue to follow our webpage  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/geomagnetic-storm-watches-effect-29-31-july-g3-strong for the latest information and forecasts.

This Geomagnetic Storm and associated Aurora event is not predicted to reach the historic levels of May 10th of this year https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2024/05/a-severe-geomagnetic-storm-may-be-coming-what-does-that-mean/  . Far more likely we could experience an event like we had in March of this year https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2024/03/northern-lights-could-be-visible-sunday-night-are-dc-area-residents-in-for-a-peak/  which involved a similar G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm. NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation .   

Our best bet is to monitor WTOP Weather https://wtop.com/weather/ for sky conditions and the NOAA https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/  and space related social media sites    https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov,   EarthSky.org , space.com for updates. It will be worth taking a look to the North from a dark sky site with a clear horizon. You might be able to detect some color in the sky if Aurora are present but they would likely be low on the Northern horizon. Wide field binoculars will help your search. 

Use a camera or smartphone that can take exposures of several seconds - including using “Night Sky” or “Low Light” settings if your camera has them - of the Northern horizon. Steady the camera or use a tripod for best image results. The camera may capture Aurora that your eyes did not  https://www.space.com/how-to-photograph-the-aurora .

There were several Aurora events visible in 2023: 

March  https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2023/03/could-the-dc-region-catch-a-glimpse-of-the-northern-lights/      

November  https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2023/11/northern-lights-may-be-visible-in-dc-area-sunday-night/    

and we are on a roll for 2024 - with more coming in all probability.

Spaceweather.com https://spaceweather.com/    - I check this site every day just as I do my local weather - has a daily snapshot of what the Space Weather in the solar system is going to be like and a current image of the Sun. Today’s posting  https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=29&month=07&year=2024    explains what happened on the Sun the past few days to cause our current space weather.

My image of today’s Sun shows a lot of sunspots.

Busy Sun Today

Greg Redfern

With our terrestrial weather being such a factor in our daily lives here in the DMV, and frankly, the rest of the world, we are also directly affected by Space Weather https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/about-space-weather which can produce a variety of events, including today’s Geomagnetic Storm and the Aurora. 

Space Weather, like our terrestrial weather, is caused by Earth’s interaction with our star, the Sun. We know it will be there every new day and count on it for life-giving warmth and energy. We also have become accustomed to it being well behaved. What many people may not know is that our Sun undergoes an 11 year Solar Cycle https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/ that can affect Space Weather throughout our Solar System. 

Our Sun https://www.nasa.gov/sun  is a 4.5 billion year old star that we have been monitoring since Galileo. Today, humans have a fleet of spacecraft that monitor the Sun and Space Weather 24x7x365.

The Sun is currently in Solar Cycle 25 https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/solar-cycle-25-is-here-nasa-noaa-scientists-explain-what-that-means and is at Solar Maximum  https://www.space.com/solar-cycle-frequency-prediction-facts. At Solar Maximum the Sun produces more sunspots  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle  and Solar Events which produce space weather events like today’s Level G3 Geomagnetic Storm. In fact, solar researches believe the Sun is already starting Solar Cycle 26 https://earthsky.org/sun/the-next-solar-cycle-already-beginning-solar-cycle-26/ .

The Sun had an episode of disturbed behavior in 1859 that if it were to occur today could adversely affect us if we were not prepared.=

In 1859 on September 1st the Sun experienced a solar storm episode that was observed by solar astronomer Richard Carrington that ended up bearing his name -"the Carrington Event” https://scijinks.gov/what-was-the-carrington-event/ . This was a watershed event in solar astronomy and also the Sun's affect on the Earth as nothing like it has not been seen since - thankfully as you will see.

If a Carrington-level solar event were to happen today the affect on modern society's infrastructure could be potentially catastrophic, especially the electrical grid which powers everything else. If you think this is unlikely or too sci-fi to be true, I suggest you read the report by the National Academies of Science published in 2008.

Last year the Sun had a very powerful Space Weather event on March 12th https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/03/14/a-powerful-solar-eruption-on-far-side-of-sun-still-impacted-earth/ , which, fortunately for us occurred on the far side of the Sun https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=14&month=03&year=2023.

Here's to clear skies. 

Sky Guy in VA