Hey, Space Placers!
THIS BLOG ENTRY HAS BEEN UPDATED AS INDICATED BY RED COLOR
Here we go, again, and so soon!
Aurora finally lit up Virginia skies the night of October 7th-8th, which was a bit later than had been predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ as related in my story https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2024/10/what-the-aurora-weekend-forecast-looks-like/ . That event did achieve the G3 (Strong) level www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation to produce Aurora.
SWPC just issued an Alert this morning for a G4 (Severe) Or Greater (!) event for October 10-11. As stated in the Alert:
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.
This Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect due to a large coronal mass ejection (CME) https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections that occurred on the Sun October 7th, our time https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=10&year=2024 . The CME was caused by a powerful solar flare https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts that lasted for four hours!
This Geomagnetic Storm and associated Aurora event forecasted is not predicted to reach the historic levels of May 10th of this year https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2024/05/a-severe-geomagnetic-storm-may-be-coming-what-does-that-mean/ . But, we should be watching the skies because if the forecast holds for G4 (Severe), and especially if the G5 (Extreme) levels are reached, it could be quite the sight.
NOAA SWPC conducted a briefing on this event and the Sun today and be seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBh5-uB77ns
For the DMV, tonight’s Aurora forecast https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental shows we MAY detect Aurora to the North thanks to our forecasted clear skies https://wtop.com/weather/.
If the SWPC forecast holds, Aurora conditions may be strong enough the night of October 10th-11th to allow us to detect Aurora visually and with our cameras.
It will be well worth taking a look to the North from a dark sky site with a clear horizon at times when G4 levels - see forecast below - are reached. The higher the number, the better chances for Aurora. This forecast can change.
SWPC’s 3 Day NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
Oct. 10 TIMES ARE EDT
8 p.m. to 11 p.m – 8.83 (G4 Severe)
Oct. 11
11 p.m (OCT. 10) to 2 a.m. – 8.00 (G4 Severe)
2 a.m. to dawn – 7.00 (G3)
Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching
G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible.
You might be able to visually detect some color in the sky if Aurora are present but they will likely be low on the Northern horizon. Wide field binoculars can enhance your view if Aurora are present.
Use a camera or smartphone that can take exposures of several seconds - including using “Night Sky” or “Low Light” settings if your camera has them - of the Northern horizon. Steady the camera or use a tripod for best image results. The camera may capture Aurora that your eyes did not https://www.space.com/how-to-photograph-the-aurora .
Our best bet is to monitor WTOP Weather https://wtop.com/weather/ for sky conditions and the NOAA https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ and space related social media sites https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov, EarthSky.org , space.com for updates.
Spaceweather.com https://spaceweather.com/ - I check this site every day just as I do my local weather - has a daily snapshot of what the Space Weather in the solar system is going to be like and a current image of the Sun.
With our terrestrial weather being such a factor in our daily lives here in the DMV, and frankly, the rest of the world, we are also directly affected by Space Weather https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/about-space-weather which can produce a variety of events, including today’s Geomagnetic Storm and the Aurora.
Space Weather, like our terrestrial weather, is caused by Earth’s interaction with our star, the Sun. We know it will be there every new day and count on it for life-giving warmth and energy. We also have become accustomed to it being well behaved. What many people may not know is that our Sun undergoes an 11 year Solar Cycle https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/ that can affect Space Weather throughout our Solar System.
Our Sun https://www.nasa.gov/sun is a 4.5 billion year old star that we have been monitoring since Galileo. Today, humans have a fleet of spacecraft that monitor the Sun and Space Weather 24x7x365.
The Sun had an episode of disturbed behavior in 1859 that if it were to occur today could adversely affect us if we were not prepared.
In 1859 on September 1st the Sun experienced a solar storm episode that was observed by solar astronomer Richard Carrington that ended up bearing his name -"the Carrington Event” https://scijinks.gov/what-was-the-carrington-event/ . This was a watershed event in solar astronomy and also the Sun's affect on the Earth as nothing like it has not been seen since - thankfully as you will see.
If a Carrington-level solar event were to happen today the affect on modern society's infrastructure could be potentially catastrophic, especially the electrical grid which powers everything else. If you think this is unlikely or too sci-fi to be true, I suggest you read the report by the National Academies of Science published in 2008.
Last year the Sun had a very powerful Space Weather event on March 12th https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/03/14/a-powerful-solar-eruption-on-far-side-of-sun-still-impacted-earth/ , which, fortunately for us occurred on the far side of the Sun https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=14&month=03&year=2023.
You listen to WTOP for “traffic and weather together on the Eights”. Maybe now you will want to include a check on Space Weather too as part of your daily weather routine.
I will be at Peaks of Otter https://www.peaksofotter.com/things-to-do/activities/astronomy tonight and I must say, I AM EXCITED. I think it may be an all nighter!
Good luck, Aurora chasers…….
Sky Guy Headed to the Mountains
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